The gist of Richard Hanania’s post is that the trans thing is not a big deal, when you look at the numbers (he concedes that it’s a great wedge issue to hammer the dems). We think he has succumbed here to the Terroristic Chair Fallacy. The basic thrust of that idea is that in some sense the numbers don’t matter; what matters is my ability to control what happens to me:
Look, I don’t care how many Americans are killed by furniture annually (50? 500? 5000? — not one iota of difference). I imagine if I’d heard of anyone dying from a chair malfunction, I might look into securing my own chairs. But that’s the point: I am in control. Similarly, I couldn’t care less how many people accidentally shoot themselves. It’s their business, their problem — and those worried about accidentally shooting themselves are free not to own a gun. On the other hand, I emphatically do care how many people are shot by criminals in a given region. Unlike the chairs or guns in my household, I have no control over a criminal’s or a terrorist’s mind.
Furniture and gun accidents are problems largely under the control of the individuals involved. Invest in good furniture and you won’t be killed by falling shelves; invest in gun safety training and you won’t shoot yourself. These tragedies are preventable, and the people affected are largely the ones who didn’t take the necessary precautions (or their friends and family, I suppose). It’s a different story with terrorism and crime. There is only so much an individual can do to prevent being a victim of either; that’s why these are hotly debated public policy issues. The public’s concern about furniture safety is — correctly! — dwarfed by its concern regarding terrorism and crime; the actual figures are practically irrelevant. And all the smug deathtoll-by-chair people can take a hike.
I think what bothers the average citizen (especially a parent!) about the trans craze is not the odds of this happening to their child (which are probably low). Rather, it’s their complete powerlessness to prevent their child from being chemically castrated and mutilated, should the government (or a disgruntled spouse) set their sights on the kid. They know the pool in their house poses a much greater statistical risk of killing their child. But they control the situation: they can supervise, cover, or dismantle that pool as they see fit. It’s one thing to be a victim of one’s own stupid choices, and quite another to fall victim to the tyrannical whims of an oppressive apparatus.
Update. We do agree with Hanania that there should be a market for kidneys.
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